Fed predictions have shifted from CUT to HIKE, the dollar has strengthened and rapeseed oil has sharply become cheaper. For buyers in gastro, margarine production and the food industry, this is a week when it is not enough to only watch the market. It is worth recalculating what can be purchased or fixed right now.
What changed this week
The commodity market did not send one simple signal this week. It sent several contradictory moves at once. Rapeseed oil fell sharply, cocoa rebounded after last week’s drop, EUR/USD weakened and Fed predictions turned in the completely opposite direction. For a buyer, this means only one thing: it is not enough to look only at the commodity price; you also need to follow currency, interest rates and contract timing.
The biggest practical opportunity today is in rapeseed oil. The Euronext August contract fell from 555 EUR/t to 504 EUR/t, or by 9.2%. A one-off drop like this does not appear every week. For Q4 purchasing, it therefore makes sense at least to open negotiations with the supplier, not wait to see whether the market falls a few more euros.
Rapeseed oil: why this is a BUY signal
The 9.2% drop in rapeseed oil is the most significant move in this issue. For gastro operations, margarine producers and companies working with vegetable fats, this is a price window that may be short. With moves like this, the market often first drops and then starts correcting part of the loss back.
- Current level: 504 EUR/t on the Euronext August contract.
- Weekly move: -9.2%, which is a significant decline compared with the previous 555 EUR/t.
- Practical conclusion: if you are planning a purchase for Q4, open fixation now or have a specific offer prepared for your volume.
Cocoa has rebounded. Those who waited are already buying more expensively
Cocoa rebounded from last week’s low of 5,327 USD/t to 5,663 USD/t. That is a 6.3% increase. For buyers, this is a good reminder that the best buying windows usually do not get confirmed afterwards by comfortable consensus. When consensus appears, part of the move is usually already gone.
If you used last week’s BUY signal, you are in a better position today. If you waited, there is still no need to panic, but you need to count on downward corrections possibly being shallower. The reason is the narrowing expected global cocoa surplus for the 2026/2027 season.
- Chocolate makers and confectioners: do not automatically expect a return to last week’s low.
- Purchasing for the coming months: handle it gradually, in parts, not with one emotional purchase.
- Risk: with a weaker euro, cocoa can become more expensive for you even when the dollar price does not move significantly.
The Fed changed direction: from CUT to HIKE
The biggest macro change of the week is not in the commodity itself, but in expectations around US interest rates. A week ago, prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket still showed a high probability of rate cuts. This week the market turned: the probability of a rate hike reached approximately 54%.
For a European buyer, this is important because higher rates in the US typically support a stronger dollar. And a stronger dollar means more expensive USD commodities for the eurozone. Cocoa, soy or oil can therefore become more expensive for you even without their underlying dollar price moving dramatically.
- The Fed sounds hawkish: instead of easing rates, raising them is also on the table.
- Inflation is still a problem: the market is losing faith in rapid rate cuts.
- Geopolitics and energy: external pressures increase the risk of volatility in input and transport prices.
A stronger dollar changes the purchasing math
EUR/USD fell from 1.1640 to 1.1353, or by roughly 2.5%. For buyers in the eurozone, this means immediate pressure on the purchase price of everything quoted in dollars. If you buy cocoa, soy, oil or other USD commodities, this move worsens your price even without any move on the exchange itself.
This is exactly why Rootie follows prediction markets in Market Watch, not only exchange quotes. Commodity price, Fed expectations and EUR/USD are connected vessels. When they move in the wrong direction at the same time, margin can deteriorate faster than a simple supplier price list shows.
What this means by segment
Not every segment should react the same way. The biggest mistake would be to take one general signal and apply it to all purchases. This week, you need to distinguish between where there is a price window, where it is better to wait and where there is a risk of currency volatility.
Gastro and margarine production
- Action step: deal with rapeseed oil now.
- The 9.2% drop to 504 EUR/t is the strongest signal of the week.
- For Q4 consumption, it makes sense to lock in at least part of the volume.
Bakeries and confectioneries
- Action step: monitor sugar, do not buy impulsively.
- After the recent rally, it has moved down from the peak, so an urgent purchase today is not a clear winner.
- For cocoa, handle purchasing gradually, especially if you are planning inventory for several months.
Fitness and muesli segment
- Action step: do not ignore sunflower oil.
- The price continues to rise by 2.6%.
- If you hold stocks, selling or partial hedging makes more sense than passivity.
Feed production
- Action step: monitor soybean meal and do not take large volumes without confirmation of the trend.
- A stronger dollar may increase volatility in dollar-denominated commodities.
- A larger purchase only makes sense after confirmation that this is not just a short fluctuation.
The biggest mistake this week: waiting without a plan
With rapeseed oil, waiting without a clear threshold is risky. If you say you will wait for an even better price, you need to know at what level you will actually trigger the purchase. Otherwise, it is not a strategy, but passive market watching.
With sugar and soybean meal, the problem is the opposite: impulsive buying just because the market is moving. Here, it makes more sense to wait for trend confirmation or prepare a scenario for specific price levels.
Need help with purchase timing?
These are exactly the situations where Rootie can help the most: evaluate when to lock in the price, when to wait and for which commodities the risk of waiting is no longer worth it. If you want to discuss a specific purchasing strategy for the coming weeks, send us the volume, commodity and delivery location.
Sources: CNBC – Kalshi Fed rate hike odds, Polymarket Fed Rates, CNBC – Cocoa prices, Euronext Rapeseed / Colza live quotes, Kalshi Fed rate hike market