Sugar is facing a weak harvest

EU sugar production in the 2026/27 season will fall to approximately 13.4 million tonnes, almost one fifth less than last year – the decline is driven by hot and dry weather, especially in France. Ending stocks will shrink from 3.0 to 2.3 million tonnes. The regional spot market is reacting: Lithuania is at EUR 0.56/kg, Czech Vyškov at EUR 0.585/kg. London white sugar (ICE No. 5, Dec-26) did weaken slightly over the last day to USD 516.30/t, but the bigger picture is clear – supply is tightening.

Rapeseed at a three-year high

German cash rapeseed jumped to EUR 559 to 568/t, the highest level since spring 2023, up 8 to 9% week-on-week. Farmers have sold most of the 2026 crop, EU imports are lagging last year, and dry soils in France and western Germany are complicating sowing for the 2027 crop. Euronext rapeseed (Nov-26) settled at EUR 528.25/t, while the February and May contracts are even more expensive – the market is pricing in risk.

Cocoa is getting cheaper despite crop concerns

ICE exchange stocks jumped to a 2.5-year high, with prices holding around USD 5,600/t, close to the lowest levels since the beginning of October. Cocoa grindings in the third quarter rose 14.3% year-on-year. Risk remains in West Africa, where below-normal rainfall in Côte d’Ivoire and a weaker Ghanaian crop could turn the market quickly – for now, however, this is a buying window.

Oil under geopolitical pressure

Brent closed at USD 113.43/bbl, up 2.4% week-on-week and more than 15% for the whole of October – close to a four-year high. The reason is tension around Iran, incidents in the Strait of Hormuz, and reciprocal Ukrainian and Russian attacks on refineries. This is feeding through into transport costs across the entire chain.