This week is no longer about one isolated move. Sixteen of the eighteen monitored commodities are rising at the same time. For buyers, this means less room for passive waiting and greater emphasis on which items to fix now and where it still makes sense to compare offers.
This week is not the story of one commodity
Previous editions always had two or three clear moves while the rest stood still. This edition is different. Of the eighteen monitored commodities, sixteen are rising, one is unchanged and one is falling. This is no longer a fluctuation in one segment, but broad pressure on inputs at the same time.
For a buyer, this changes the question. You are not deciding which single commodity to catch before it becomes more expensive. You are deciding which items in the purchasing basket to fix now and which can still wait.
According to the ECB, the exchange rate is 1.1699 EUR/USD, meaning the euro is approximately 1.1% stronger than last week. This cushions part of the pressure on dollar-denominated inputs such as cocoa and oil, but it does not eliminate it. When buying in USD, a stronger euro is a reason to request a confirmed price with validity, not a reason to postpone the decision.
What is moving the most this week
Sugar: +6.0% – the sharpest move in food commodities
Sugar moved to 332 EUR/t and this is the largest weekly jump in the entire overview. For bakeries, confectioneries and beverage manufacturers, this is the strongest signal of the week. If sugar is part of your recipe and you do not have Q4 volume fixed, request an offer now with the volume, quality and delivery date specified. The Rootie reference range is 365 to 400 EUR/t.
Brent: +6.6% – transport is already being reflected in delivered prices
Brent rose to 94.4 USD/bbl from 88.5 USD/bbl. It has risen significantly for the second week in a row, so fuel surcharges are no longer merely theoretical. For every delivered price, request the surcharge, route and validity separately. Fix transport for a shorter period and only after the delivery window has been confirmed.
Cocoa: +3.7% – third week of growth
Cocoa is at 5,158 EUR/t. The Rootie range is 5,675 to 6,190 EUR/t and we classify the situation as short supply. For pralines, chocolate fillings and dairy desserts, do not enter into long blind contracts. Split the fixation into a shorter volume and check fat content, processing method, expiry and dispatch date.
Sunflower oil: +3.0% – keep existing contracts
Sunflower oil is at 1,450 EUR/t. If you have a valid contract, keep it. If you do not, expect new offers to be higher.
Rapeseed oil: -1.3% – the only window in the entire overview
The latest Euronext quote is 538.25 EUR/t and rapeseed is the only commodity that declined this week. This is the only place where waiting and comparison genuinely make sense. Refresh offers for Q4 and Q1, request at least two comparable offers with the same origin, Incoterms, payment and delivery date, and only then fix the volume.
Potato starch: +1.8% – postponing does not make much sense
Potato starch is at 870 EUR/t, with a Rootie range of 960 to 1,045 EUR/t. The increase is not dramatic, but the direction is clear and availability before the new campaign tends to be tight. For frozen bakery products, meat products and paper-industry use, this is an item that is not worth postponing.
Starches, gluten, flour and additives are almost all rising, but only slightly. Corn and wheat starch +1.6%, tapioca +1.4%, wheat gluten +1.0%, T550 flour +2.5%, maltodextrin +0.7%, glucose syrup +0.7%, potato flakes +1.1%, STPP +2.9% and salt +2.4%. Individually, these are small moves, but together they are making the entire purchasing basket more expensive.
For each of these items, confirm the batch, expiry, origin and logistics before the offer. A stable benchmark does not mean stable stock.
Caraway: no change
Caraway is at 3,500 EUR/t and is the only item that is unchanged. Here, it makes sense to maintain the current position.
What this means for you by segment
Bakeries and confectioneries: Sugar, flour and starch are all rising at the same time. This is a week when it pays to send one combined request for the entire basket instead of three separate inquiries. With one message, you get a better comparison and a faster response.
Chocolate manufacturers and praline producers: Cocoa is rising for the third week. If you do not have the autumn season covered, a shorter fixation now represents less risk than waiting for a reversal that currently has no support in the data.
Dairies and dessert manufacturers: Cocoa and starch are rising together. Check which recipes are most sensitive to these inputs and fix those first.
Fitness, muesli and protein bars: Maltodextrin is rising only slightly, cocoa significantly. For bar recipes, consider fixing cocoa in a shorter volume and leave the other inputs with a more flexible term.
Gastro and manufacturers using oils: Sunflower oil is rising, rapeseed oil has fallen. If your recipes are interchangeable, rapeseed is clearly the better choice this week.
Logistics and everyone buying delivered prices: Brent is rising for the second week in a row. Do not automatically accept a general fuel surcharge. Request the route, delivery type and validity.
Practical impact for buyers
- Request short-term offers today for sugar, cocoa and potato starch. For each one, specify the volume, quality, Incoterms and delivery date, and request offer validity.
- Rapeseed oil is the only place where comparison makes sense. Request two comparable offers and fix Q4 and Q1.
- Combine commodities by company. In a week when almost everything is rising, a combined request for the entire basket is significantly more efficient than isolated inquiries.
- For stable and moderately rising items, verify availability first. A price without a confirmed batch, expiry and transport is not a comparable offer.
Why Rootie works this week
This week, we closed 3 contracts through Rootie with an aggregated volume of 180 tonnes and an average saving of 8% compared with the spot price. In a week when sixteen of eighteen commodities are rising, simply finding the lowest number is not what decides the outcome. What matters is a clear specification, comparable Incoterms, confirmed transport and speed.
Need help with purchase timing?
If you are dealing with sugar, cocoa, starches, oils or a combined inquiry for several commodities at once, we will prepare a pricing framework based on volume, quality and timing.
Sources: ECB EUR/USD reference exchange rate, Euronext Rapeseed/Colza, Trading Economics Brent, Trading Economics Cocoa, ICE Sugar No. 11