Sugar +7.4% week on week, cocoa +2.5%, EU potato crop nearly -25%, oils under harvest pressure. Rootie Market Watch No. 25 (5 Oct 2026): what this means for buyers of food ingredients in Slovakia and the Czech Republic.
Sugar is the commodity of the week
White sugar on ICE London closed on 2 October at 531.50 USD/t, which is 473.50 EUR/t at the ECB exchange rate of 1.1225 and a 7.4% week-on-week increase in euros (+5.7% in dollars). Raw sugar in New York gained 5.2% in one day and more than 10% over the month, staying close to its highest level since spring 2025. The reason is on the supply side: EU production is 19% lower year on year, and Thailand is 17% lower. Spot prices in Central Europe are flat for now (CZ 580 EUR/t FCA, DE 650, UA 490), but the exchange moves ahead of spot and the next producer offers are more likely to be higher.
Cocoa: a rebound after the decline, not a new trend
According to Trading Economics, cocoa closed on 2 October at 5,670 USD/t (5,051 EUR/t), up 2.5% for the week; ICE London Dec-26 is at 4,985 EUR/t. Friday’s 6% jump from Wednesday’s low looks dramatic, but the New York contract is still 8% lower over the month, so this is a rebound after a decline, not a new trend.
Potatoes are the quiet problem of the autumn
Crop estimates in the four main EU countries (DE, NL, BE, FR) point to 20.8 million tonnes, almost a quarter less than last year, while Bavaria reports a 36% decline. Processing potatoes are trading at around 240 EUR/t. Polish native potato starch is still holding at 625 EUR/t FCA, but with a crop like this it is only a matter of time before the raw-material shortage flows through to starch and flakes.
Wheat is rising
MATIF Dec-26 gained 2% to 241.50 EUR/t, food-grade wheat in Prague rose 5.2% week on week to 203.82 EUR/t, and Bratislava ex-farm is at 201.78 EUR/t. Bakeries should not expect cheaper flour in the coming weeks.
Oils are moving in the opposite direction
The sunflower harvest in the Black Sea region is pushing crude sunflower oil down to around 1,150 USD/t FOB, while European quotations (Romania, Italy) fell by 0.8% to 1% over the week. Rapeseed on MATIF (Nov-26, 536.75 EUR/t) is 2.1% lower week on week and 2.7% lower over the month. For oils, it is worth waiting.
Macro
Brent is holding above 100 USD/bbl (+4.3% over the month) and the euro has weakened to 1.1225 USD. Both factors make transport and dollar-denominated imports more expensive, including tapioca starch, rice flour and phosphates.
What this means for buyers in Slovakia and the Czech Republic
- Contract sugar, potato starch and flakes for Q4 immediately.
- Do not expect flour to become cheaper.
- Do not chase oils and cocoa.
Rootie has native wheat starch and potato flakes available with delivery from Dolný Ohaj, valid until 15 October; if interested, we will send a price within 24 hours.
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Sources: ICE London White Sugar No. 5 (Investing.com) • ICE London Cocoa (Investing.com) • Raw Sugar No. 11 (Trading Economics) • Brent (Trading Economics) • MATIF wheat and rapeseed (AHDB) • European Commission, agrifood data • Commodity Board, potatoes and starch • Commodity Board, sugar spot • Commodity Board, sunflower • Proplanta Börse Wien • ECB exchange rates.