Oils have turned lower

Rapeseed on the Paris MATIF closed on 16 October at EUR 501.75/t for the November contract, 3.9% lower than a week earlier, returning to a six-month low. Polish rapeseed procurement prices fell by PLN 9/t over the week. Crude sunflower oil delivered to Odesa stands at EUR 1,044/t, down 2.2%: by mid-October Ukraine had harvested 7.44 million tonnes of sunflower from two-thirds of the acreage, and processors report waiting times of 7 to 12 days for seed intake. Oil is holding up better than seed only because of the risk premium in the Black Sea. Buyers of vegetable oils have a reason to wait.

Wheat: exchange down, physical market up

The December MATIF contract fell by 1.8% to EUR 243.75/t. Food wheat in our region, however, is moving in the opposite direction: according to the European Commission, in the week to 11 October it stood at EUR 210.31/t in Prague (+2.7%), EUR 216.53/t in Poland (+1.1%) and EUR 211.15/t ex-farm in Bratislava, while Hamburg holds at EUR 251/t. Mills are buying for the winter and cheaper flour from the exchange is not making its way into price lists. Anyone who has not contracted flour and gluten for the first quarter of 2027 has no reason to wait.

Sugar eased on the exchange, but not in the region

White sugar on ICE London closed on 16 October at USD 554.90/t (EUR 493/t), 1.2% lower in euro terms, while raw sugar in New York stands at 20.85 cents per pound, up 13.8% over the month. Spot prices in Central Europe have not moved: Kalisz EUR 580 to 590/t FCA, Warsaw EUR 620/t, Lithuania rose by 3.8% to EUR 540/t, and producer offers are EUR 580 to 650/t. The EU beet crop is weaker after the dry summer, production is estimated at 13.4 million tonnes and ending stocks are expected to fall by a quarter. The exchange decline will not feed through into sugar factory prices, so offers for 2027 should be closed sooner rather than later.

Cocoa, oil, starches

London cocoa fell by 2.2% over the week to GBP 4,221/t (EUR 5,002/t), while New York lost 3.2% in a single day on 16 October after third-quarter processing data. Brent rose to USD 107.9 per barrel (+7.5% over the month), while the euro strengthened to USD 1.1253: transport is becoming more expensive, while dollar-denominated imports are about half a percent cheaper due to the exchange rate. Native potato starch in Poland stands unchanged at EUR 0.63/kg FCA, wheat gluten at EUR 1,800/t (+1.4%); the Polish potato crop is 15% lower than last year, and we do not expect starch to become cheaper for the winter.