MATIF rapeseed -6.5% ahead of expiry, sugar +2.2% after a weekly high, potato harvest in Poland -15%, attack near Odesa. Rootie Market Watch No. 26 (12 Oct 2026): what it means for buyers of food ingredients in SK and CZ.
Rapeseed is the move of the week
The November contract on the Paris MATIF closed on 9 October at €502/t, 6.5% lower than a week earlier. According to German market reports, this is mainly a technical move three weeks before the contract expires: the February contract is holding at €555.75/t and crude rapeseed oil in Poland stands at €1,247/t (European Commission, week to 4 Oct.). This does not yet imply cheaper rapeseed oil.
Sunflower oil is moving in two directions
Prices are falling: crude oil delivered to Odesa dropped to €1,024/t (-4.1%), while Milan fell to €1,225/t (-1.6%). At the same time, on 4 October an attack hit an oil terminal near Odesa and premiums for immediate deliveries firmed. Anyone who needs oil in October should not wait for the bottom. Those buying for November and December can wait.
Sugar catches its breath after a strong week
White sugar on ICE London rose to USD 556.50/t on 6 October, then corrected and closed the week at USD 542.50/t (€484/t), still 2.2% higher than a week earlier. Raw sugar in New York is above 20 cents per pound, the highest since February 2025, due to weather in Brazil, India and Thailand. Spot prices in Central Europe are at €520 to €580/t FCA. The EU sugar beet crop is about 11% below the five-year average, and in Poland growers and state-owned sugar producer KGS failed to agree on the beet price for 2027. It is worth closing a contract for Q4 and the first quarter of 2027 before spot catches up with the exchange.
There are fewer potatoes, and their quality is worse
The Polish statistical office estimates the crop at 5.9 million tonnes, 15% less than last year, and the market reports problems with quality and tuber rot. Native potato starch in Poland is holding at €625/t FCA, so far unchanged. We recommend contracting starch and flakes for the winter now.
Wheat, cocoa and macro
MATIF Dec-26 is at €242/t (+0.2%), food-grade wheat in Poland at €214/t (+1.1%) and in Prague at €205/t (+0.5%). Cheaper flour is not coming. According to Trading Economics, cocoa closed on 9 October at USD 5,670/t (€5,060/t), +0.2% for the week and 4.9% lower for the month. Brent stands at USD 103/bbl and the euro at USD 1.1206, so transport and dollar-denominated imports (tapioca, phosphates) are not getting cheaper either.
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Sources: MATIF wheat and rapeseed (AHDB) • top agrar, rapeseed • European Commission, agrifood data • ICE London White Sugar No. 5 (Investing.com) • Raw Sugar No. 11 (Trading Economics) • Cocoa (Trading Economics) • Brent (Trading Economics) • Commodity Board, sunflower • Commodity Board, Odesa terminal • Commodity Board, potatoes in Poland • Commodity Board, sugar and beet • ECB exchange rates.