The grain commodities market is preparing for a dynamic autumn 2025, characterized by firm or rising prices of food commodities against the backdrop of declining trends in non-food commodities. This year has already seen significant volatility, particularly among key staple foods such as sugar, potatoes, and wheat. Looking ahead, it is crucial for B2B players in this market to align their strategies with these changing conditions. This article examines the key market dynamics and forecasts for these staple commodities to help industry professionals make informed decisions.
Sugar Market Dynamics
In 2025, the sugar market has been experiencing weakening prices rather than sharp growth. Raw sugar in September 2025 trades at approximately EUR 308–328 per ton, representing a decline compared to the beginning of the year and a continuation of the downward trend after the peak in 2023/24. Improved global supplies and weaker demand have contributed to this decline. While weather risks and tight supply in some regions remain, the market development points to a more stable to slightly declining trend.
The outlook for 2026 is uncertain – analysts expect prices to stabilize at current levels, or even a slight decline if global production remains favorable. Companies should adjust their procurement and pricing strategies to remain competitive even in a slightly weaker market environment.
Potatoes and the Starch Market
Although direct data on the potato market for autumn 2025 is limited, valuable insights can be drawn from the broader starch market, as potatoes are a key source of starch in Europe. The second quarter of 2025 saw sustained high starch prices due to restricted corn and potato supplies in Eastern Europe, worsened by adverse weather and high energy costs. Steady demand from the food, pharmaceutical, and biodegradable plastics sectors continues to support starch prices. With reduced planting areas and yields due to unfavorable weather, the tightness in potato-derived starch is expected to mirror that of corn starch, maintaining high price levels.
Wheat: Balancing Supply and Demand
In the wheat market, prices remain stable – US and global wheat futures in September 2025 are around EUR 177–195 per ton. USDA has also raised its estimate of global production for the 2025/26 season to a record of approximately 816 million tons, which supports pressure toward stability or even slight price declines. Wheat’s dual role as a source of gluten and starch makes it crucial in both the food and industrial sectors. The stability of the broader starch market through the end of 2025, influenced by rising energy costs and supply chain issues, further underscores the continued demand for wheat.
Sector Outlook and Strategic Considerations
Unlike the declining trend in energy and industrial commodities, food commodities such as sugar, potatoes, and wheat continue to demonstrate price resilience. This is attributed to persistent supply-side pressures and steady consumer demand. Rising operating costs, driven by higher energy and logistics prices, are further impacting commodity prices. In the first half of 2025, wholesale electricity prices in the EU averaged around EUR 84/MWh (+30% year-on-year), while gas prices rose by about 20%. These factors significantly increase costs, particularly in the extraction of starch from potatoes and wheat. Uncertain crop outcomes due to adverse weather conditions highlight the need for strategic risk management and contract planning.
Overview Table: Autumn 2025 Commodity Outlook
Commodity | Price Trend | Key Factors |
Sugar | ↓ / Stabilization | Improved supplies, weaker demand, weather risks |
Potato starch | ↑ / Stable high | Supply shortages, high energy/transport costs, steady demand |
Wheat | ↑ or Stable | Record global production, energy/logistics costs |
Wheat gluten | Stable | Stály dopyt z potravinárskeho sektora, žiadne významné šoky |
Corn | Stable to slightly tight | Steady demand from the food sector, no major shocks reported |
Potato | ↑ / High | Yields in the US and EU, demand from feed and bioethanol sectors |
Rice | Stable | Adverse weather in Europe, reduced planting area, high storage costs |
Barley | ↑ Slightly | Demand from brewing industry, regional yield constraints |
Conclusion
Expected firm to higher prices of commodities such as sugar, potatoes, and wheat this autumn suggest that businesses need to strategically plan for cost shifts in an increasingly volatile market context. By understanding the key dynamics of supply and demand, particularly those influenced by weather and energy costs, market participants can better navigate and seize opportunities that may arise in 2026.