Commodity markets delivered a sharp contrast this week. Some key inputs for food production became more expensive quickly enough that waiting could cost more than acting now. Others, however, moved into attractive price levels that may not be repeated in the third quarter.
The three areas that deserve the most attention are cocoa, sugar and vegetable oils. These directly affect bakeries, confectionery producers, chocolate manufacturers, beverage companies, the food-service segment and producers of semi-finished ingredients.
This article is not meant to be a passive price report. It is a practical overview of where it makes sense to act, where waiting may still be reasonable and where you should at least verify supplier and delivery conditions.
Cocoa: higher prices are changing production planning
Cocoa powder with 10-12% fat content rose by almost 7% in one week, from roughly EUR 12,550/t to EUR 13,400/t. September contracts on the London ICE exchange also moved towards GBP 6,800 per tonne, the highest level seen in the last two months.
The move is driven by a combination of weaker African crop expectations, lower stocks in European warehouses and the expectation that price pressure may continue during Q3. Ivory Coast and Ghana remain critical to global supply, so weaker yields or disruptions quickly feed through into prices.
Sugar: the decline created a buying window
Sugar moved in the opposite direction. The EU white sugar spot price fell to roughly EUR 460/t, around 4.2% below last week. In Polish and Lithuanian wholesale markets, FCA quotations are around EUR 0.45-0.48/kg depending on granulation and order size.
The decline is supported by higher supply from the new beet campaign, weaker global sentiment and the usual seasonal effect. That makes this a potentially useful moment for companies that can estimate their consumption over the coming months.
Vegetable oils: rapeseed is cheaper, sunflower is moving higher
Vegetable oils are telling two different stories. Rapeseed oil in the Netherlands fell from roughly EUR 1,380/t in June to about EUR 1,300/t. The reason is higher palm oil availability and weaker biodiesel demand.
Sunflower oil, on the other hand, moved up by 3-5%. Black Sea seed prices from Ukraine, Bulgaria and Moldova remain under pressure and geopolitical tension adds a risk premium. For producers that need sunflower oil as a stable recipe component, waiting carries more risk.
Crude oil and transport: do not ignore costs outside the commodity itself
Brent crude rose by 5.2% in one week to roughly USD 84.50 per barrel. For open contracts that include delivery, this is not a detail. Higher oil prices usually feed into freight rates with a two- to three-week delay and may increase transport costs by 3-5%.
If you have a commodity contract prepared but transport is not yet confirmed, lock in the rate now. Waiting until the last moment is exactly the type of mistake that can erase part of the saving from a well-negotiated commodity price.
Other commodities in brief
Potato starch PL: stable at around EUR 0.85/kg FCA Lodz; the dry start to the season increases risk for the second half of summer.
Wheat starch DE: down by roughly 2.4% quarter on quarter, with the current average around EUR 590/t; buyers have a stronger negotiating position.
Corn starch EU: stable at around EUR 620/t, with no major movement.
Potato flakes: up by roughly 5%, currently around EUR 1,420/t; the main pressure comes from a drier start to the season.
Maltodextrin DE 18: slightly lower by around 1.5%, with the market mostly stabilising.
STPP (E451): up by around 2%, currently around EUR 1,950/t, with a mild upward tendency.
Conclusion: three things are worth dealing with this week
1. Cocoa: fix real consumption for 3-6 months, especially for products with a higher cocoa share.
2. Sugar: use the current pricing window for Q3-Q4 coverage if your consumption is predictable.
3. Rapeseed oil and transport: consider buying rapeseed oil into stock and confirm freight rates before higher crude prices filter through.
The key is not to buy everything at once. The key is to stop leaving procurement to chance. With cocoa and sunflower oil, the priority is protection against further price increases. With sugar and rapeseed oil, the priority is using the current favourable window.
How to buy or check a price through Rootie
If you want to check the current price, send us the commodity, specification and required volume. Within 24 hours, we will return an indicative or binding price depending on availability and the type of raw material.
For selected contracts, we can work with payment terms of up to 60 days and cover receivables through Coface insurance. You focus on production, not cash flow. ň
Note on prices
Prices are indicative and based on spot or nearby futures benchmarks converted to EUR/t at 1.08 USD/EUR. This text is market commentary, not investment advice. Always verify buying or selling decisions with your own team and supplier.
Price sources: ChemAnalyst, CMB Commodity Board, ICE, Euronext, EU Cereals Dashboard, Trading Economics, FT Markets, IMF Primary Commodity Markets, teseo.clal.it, indexbox.